Tantance ingancin Shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko a Sudan ta Kudu: Hanyar samar da zaman lafiya da sasanta rikici.
Abstract:
Tashin hankali a Sudan ta Kudu yana da dalilai masu yawa da sarkakiya. Akwai rashin ikon siyasa daga shugaba Salva Kiir, ko dan kabilar Dinka, ko kuma tsohon mataimakin shugaban kasa Riek Machar, dan kabilar Nuer, don kawo karshen kiyayyar da ake yi. Hada kan kasa da tabbatar da mulkin raba madafun iko zai bukaci shugabannin su ajiye sabanin da ke tsakaninsu a gefe. Wannan takarda ta yi amfani da tsarin raba madafun iko a matsayin hanyar samar da zaman lafiya da warware rikici wajen sasanta rikicin tsakanin al'ummomi da kuma kawo rarrabuwar kawuna a cikin al'ummomin da yaki ya daidaita. An samo bayanan da aka tattara don wannan bincike ta hanyar nazari mai zurfi na wallafe-wallafen da ake da su kan rikice-rikice a Sudan ta Kudu da sauran shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko a fadin Afirka bayan rikici. An yi amfani da bayanan don nuna rikitattun abubuwan da ke haifar da tashin hankali da kuma nazarin yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya ta ARCSS na Agusta 2015 da kuma yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya ta R-ARCSS ta Satumba 2018, wacce ta fara aiki a ranar 22 ga Fabrairu.nd, 2020. Wannan takarda tana ƙoƙarin amsa tambaya ɗaya: Shin tsarin raba madafun iko shine hanya mafi dacewa don gina zaman lafiya da warware rikici a Sudan ta Kudu? Ka'idar tashin hankali da ka'idar rikice-rikice tsakanin ƙungiyoyi suna ba da cikakken bayani game da rikicin Sudan ta Kudu. Takardar ta yi nuni da cewa, domin duk wani shiri na raba madafun iko a Sudan ta Kudu, dole ne a sake gina amana tsakanin masu ruwa da tsaki a rikicin, wanda ke bukatar kwance damara, ruguzawa, da sake hadewa (DDR) na jami’an tsaro, da yin adalci da rikon amana. , ƙungiyoyin jama'a masu ƙarfi, da kuma rarraba albarkatun ƙasa daidai wa daida tsakanin dukkan ƙungiyoyi. Bugu da kari, tsarin raba madafun iko kadai ba zai iya samar da dauwamammen zaman lafiya da tsaro a Sudan ta Kudu ba. Zaman lafiya da kwanciyar hankali na iya buƙatar ƙarin matakin kawar da siyasa daga ƙabilanci, da buƙatar masu shiga tsakani su mai da hankali sosai kan tushen tushen da korafe-korafen yakin basasa.
Zazzage Wannan Labari
Shawarwarin Kira:
Darboe, F. (2022). Tantance ingancin shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko a Sudan ta Kudu: Hanyar samar da zaman lafiya da warware rikici. Jaridar Rayuwa Tare, 7(1), 26-37.
Bayanin Labari:
@Labarai{Darboe2022}
Title = {Kimanin Tasirin Shirye-shiryen Raba madafun iko a Sudan ta Kudu: Hanyar samar da zaman lafiya da sasanta rikici}
Marubuci = {Foday Darboe}
Url = {https://icermediation.org/assessing-the-effectiveness-of-power-sharing-arrangements-in-south-sudan-a-peacebuilding-and-conflict-resoolution-approach/}
ISSN = {2373-6615 (Bugu); 2373-6631 (Kan layi)}
Shekara = {2022}
Kwanan wata = {2022-12-10}
Jarida = {Jarida ta Rayuwa Tare}
girma = {7}
Lamba = {1}
Shafuka = {26-37}
Mawallafi = {Cibiyar Duniya don Sasancin Kabilanci-addini}
Adireshi = {White Plains, New York}
Bugu = {2022}.
Gabatarwa
Ka'idar tashin hankali da ka'idar rikice-rikice tsakanin ƙungiyoyi suna ba da cikakken bayani game da rikicin Sudan ta Kudu. Masana ilimin zaman lafiya da nazarin rikice-rikice sun tabbatar da cewa adalci, bukatun ɗan adam, tsaro, da kuma ainihi sune tushen rikice-rikice idan ba a magance su ba (Gultung, 1996; Burton, 1990; Lederach, 1995). A Sudan ta Kudu, tashe-tashen hankulan tsarin suna daukar nau'in rashin hukunta masu yawa, amfani da tashin hankali don dorewar mulki, wariya, da rashin samun albarkatu da damammaki. Rashin daidaiton da ya haifar ya sanya kansu cikin tsarin siyasa, tattalin arziki da zamantakewa na kasar.
Tushen rigingimun Sudan ta Kudu sun hada da mayar da hankali kan tattalin arziki, gasar kabilanci ta mulki, albarkatun kasa, da tashe-tashen hankula na shekaru da dama. Masana kimiyyar zamantakewa sun ƙayyade alaƙa tsakanin ƙungiyoyin ƙungiyoyi da rikice-rikicen ƙungiyoyi. Shugabannin siyasa sukan yi amfani da sunan ƙungiya a matsayin kururuwa don tara mabiyansu ta hanyar kwatanta kansu sabanin sauran ƙungiyoyin zamantakewa (Tajfel & Turner, 1979). Ƙirƙirar rarrabuwar kabilanci ta wannan hanya yana haifar da haɓakar fafatawa a fagen siyasa tare da ƙarfafa ƙungiyoyin ƙungiyoyi, wanda ke sa warware rikice-rikice da samar da zaman lafiya da wahala a cimma. Dangane da abubuwan da suka faru a Sudan ta Kudu, shugabannin siyasa daga kabilun Dinka da Nuer sun yi amfani da tsoro da rashin tsaro wajen yada rikice-rikice tsakanin kungiyoyi.
Gwamnati mai ci a Sudan ta Kudu ta samo asali ne daga yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya da aka fi sani da Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya da aka rattabawa hannu a ranar 9 ga Janairu, 2005 da Gwamnatin Jamhuriyar Sudan (GoS) da kungiyar 'yan adawa ta farko a Kudancin Sudan, Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), suka kawo karshen fiye da haka. Fiye da shekaru ashirin na yakin basasa a Sudan (1983-2005). Yayin da yakin basasa ke kawo karshe, manyan jami'an 'yan tawayen Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army sun yi watsi da bambance-bambancen da ke tsakaninsu don ba da hadin kai, kuma, a wasu lokuta, su sanya kansu a matsayin siyasa (Okiech, 2016; Roach, 2016; de Vries & Schomerus, 2017). A shekara ta 2011, bayan shafe shekaru ana yaki, al'ummar Kudancin Sudan sun kada kuri'ar ballewa daga Arewa, suka zama kasa mai cin gashin kanta. Duk da haka, bayan shekaru biyu da samun 'yancin kai, ƙasar ta sake komawa cikin yaƙin basasa. Da farko dai an samu rarrabuwar kawuna tsakanin shugaba Salva Kiir da tsohon mataimakin shugaban kasar Riek Machar, sai dai salon siyasar kasar ya koma rikicin kabilanci. Gwamnatin Sudan ta SPLM da sojojinta na Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) sun rabu bayan rikicin siyasa da aka dade ana gwabzawa. Yayin da fadan ya yadu bayan Juba zuwa wasu yankuna, tashin hankalin ya raba dukkan manyan kabilun (Aalen, 2013; Radon & Logan, 2014; de Vries & Schomerus, 2017).
A martanin da kungiyar ta IGAD ta mayar, ta shiga tsakani wajen sasanta bangarorin da ke rikici da juna. Sai dai kuma manyan kasashe mambobin kungiyar sun nuna rashin nuna sha'awar samar da mafita mai ɗorewa ta hanyar shawarwarin zaman lafiya na hukumar raya ƙasashe masu tasowa don kawo ƙarshen rikicin. A yunƙurin neman warware rikicin Sudan ta Kudu da ba za a iya warwarewa cikin lumana ba, an samar da tsarin raba madafun iko a cikin yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya ta shekarar 2005, baya ga yarjejeniyar warware rikicin Sudan ta Kudu (ARCSS) a watan Agustan 2015. wanda ya magance tsawaita tashin hankalin tsakanin-Kudu (de Vries & Schomerus, 2017). Malamai da masu ra'ayin siyasa da dama sun dauki rikicin Sudan ta Kudu a matsayin rikicin kabilanci -amma tsara rikicin da ya shafi kabilanci ya kasa magance wasu batutuwa masu zurfi.
2018 Satumba Rfitar da su Ayarjejeniya akan Resolution na Cyi a ciki SOuth SYarjejeniyar udan (R-ARCSS) an yi niyya ne don sake farfado da yarjejeniyar da aka cimma a watan Agustan 2015 kan warware rikicin Sudan ta Kudu, wanda ke da nakasu da yawa kuma ba shi da ingantacciyar manufa, jagorori, da tsarin samar da zaman lafiya da kwance damarar kungiyoyin 'yan tawaye. Duk da haka, duka yarjejeniyar warware rikicin Sudan ta Kudu da kuma Rfitar da su Ayarjejeniya akan Resolution na Cyi a ciki SOuth Sudan ya jaddada rabon mulki tsakanin jiga-jigan siyasa da na soja. Wannan ‘yar rabe-raben mayar da hankali a kai na kara ta’azzara siyasa, tattalin arziki, da zaman kashe wando da ke haifar da tashin hankali a Sudan ta Kudu. Babu daya daga cikin wadannan yarjejeniyoyin zaman lafiya guda biyu da aka yi cikakken bayani dalla dalla don magance tushen rikicin ko kuma gabatar da taswirar hadewar kungiyoyin 'yan bindiga a cikin jami'an tsaro tare da gudanar da sauye-sauyen tattalin arziki da kuma gyara korafe-korafe.
Wannan takarda ta yi amfani da tsarin raba madafun iko a matsayin hanyar samar da zaman lafiya da warware rikici wajen sasanta rikicin tsakanin al'ummomi da kuma kawo rarrabuwar kawuna a cikin al'ummomin da yaki ya daidaita. Duk da haka, yana da mahimmanci a lura cewa raba madafun iko yana da ikon ƙarfafa rarrabuwar kawuna wanda ke haifar da rugujewar haɗin kan ƙasa da gina zaman lafiya. An samo bayanan da aka tattara don wannan bincike ta hanyar nazari mai zurfi na wallafe-wallafen da ake da su kan rikice-rikice a Sudan ta Kudu da sauran shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko bayan rikice-rikice a fadin Afirka. An yi amfani da bayanan ne don nuna ɗimbin dalilai masu sarƙaƙiya da sarƙaƙiya na tashe-tashen hankula da kuma nazarin yarjejeniyar watan Agustan 2015 kan warware rikicin Sudan ta Kudu da kuma na Satumba 2018. Rfitar da su Ayarjejeniya akan Resolution na Cyi a ciki SOuth Sudan, wanda ya fara aiki a ranar 22 ga Fabrairund, 2020. Wannan takarda tana ƙoƙarin amsa tambaya ɗaya: Shin tsarin raba madafun iko shine hanya mafi dacewa don gina zaman lafiya da warware rikici a Sudan ta Kudu?
Don amsa wannan tambaya, na bayyana tarihin tarihin rikicin. Binciken wallafe-wallafen ya binciko misalan shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko a baya a Afirka a matsayin jagora. Daga nan na yi bayanin abubuwan da za su kai ga samun nasarar gwamnatin hadin kan kasa, ina mai cewa, samar da zaman lafiya da kwanciyar hankali, da hada kan kasa, da kafa gwamnatin raba madafun iko, zai bukaci shugabanni su sake gina amana, da raba albarkatun kasa da damammakin tattalin arziki tsakanin bangarori daban-daban. Ƙungiyoyin ƙabilanci, gyara 'yan sanda, kwance damarar 'yan bindiga, inganta ƙungiyoyin jama'a masu ƙwazo, da kafa tsarin sulhu don tunkarar abubuwan da suka faru a baya.
Ƙaddamarwar Zaman Lafiya
Yarjejeniyar da aka cimma a watan Agustan 2015 kan warware rikicin Sudan ta Kudu, wanda kungiyar hadin kan kasashen IGAD ke shiga tsakani, an yi shi ne domin warware takaddamar siyasa tsakanin shugaba Kiir da tsohon mataimakinsa, Machar. A lokuta da dama a duk tsawon tattaunawar, Kiir da Machar sun karya wasu jerin yarjejeniyoyin da aka kulla a baya saboda rashin jituwar raba madafun iko. A karkashin matsin lamba daga kwamitin sulhu na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya (UNSC) da takunkuman da Amurka ta kakaba mata, da kuma takunkumin hana shigo da makamai don kawo karshen tashin hankalin, bangarorin biyu sun rattaba hannu kan yarjejeniyar raba madafun iko da ta kawo karshen tashin hankalin na wani dan lokaci.
Tanade-tanaden yarjejeniyar zaman lafiyar da aka cimma a watan Agustan 2015, ta samar da mukaman ministoci 30 da aka raba tsakanin Kiir, Machar, da sauran jam'iyyun adawa. Shugaba Kiir ne ke da iko da majalisar ministoci da mafi yawan 'yan adawa a majalisar dokokin kasar yayin da mataimakin shugaba Machar ke da iko da 'yan adawa biyu a majalisar ministocin (Okiech, 2016). An yaba wa yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya ta 2015 saboda magance matsalolin da ke damun dukkan masu ruwa da tsaki, amma ba ta da hanyar wanzar da zaman lafiya da za ta hana tashin hankali a lokutan rikon kwarya. Har ila yau, yarjejeniyar zaman lafiyar ba ta dade ba, saboda sake barkewar fada a watan Yulin 2016, tsakanin dakarun gwamnati da masu biyayya ga mataimakin shugaban kasar Machar, wanda ya tilastawa Machar ficewa daga kasar. Daya daga cikin batutuwan da ake ta cece-kuce tsakanin shugaba Kiir da 'yan adawa shi ne shirinsa na raba jihohi 10 na kasar zuwa 28. A cewar 'yan adawa, sabon iyakokin ya tabbatar da cewa kabilar Dinka ta shugaba Kiir ce ke da rinjaye a majalisar dokoki da kuma sauya daidaiton kabilun kasar (Sperber, 2016). ). Tare, waɗannan abubuwan sun haifar da rugujewar gwamnatin riƙon ƙwarya ta Ƙungiyar Ƙasa (TGNU).
Yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya ta watan Agustan 2015 da tsarin raba madafun iko na watan Satumba na 2018 an gina su ne bisa sha'awar sake fasalin zamantakewa da siyasa na cibiyoyi fiye da samar da tsarin siyasa na dogon lokaci da hanyoyin samar da zaman lafiya. Misali, da Rfitar da su Ayarjejeniya akan Resolution na Cyi a ciki SOuth Sudan ya tsara tsarin sabuwar gwamnatin riƙon ƙwarya wanda ya haɗa da buƙatun haɗa kai don zaɓar ministoci. The Rfitar da su Ayarjejeniya akan Resolution na Cyi a ciki SOuth SUdan ya kuma kirkiro jam'iyyun siyasa biyar tare da ware mataimakan shugaban kasa hudu, sannan mataimakin shugaban kasa na farko Riek Machar ne zai jagoranci bangaren mulki. Baya ga mataimakin shugaban kasa na farko, ba za a sami matsayi a tsakanin mataimakan shugaban kasa ba. Wannan tsari na raba madafun iko a watan Satumba na shekarar 2018 ya tanadi yadda majalisar dokokin wucin gadi (TNL) za ta yi aiki, da yadda za a kafa majalisar dokokin wucin gadi ta kasa (TNLA) da majalisar jihohi, da yadda majalisar ministoci da mataimakan ministoci tsakanin bangarori daban-daban za su kasance. aiki (Wool, 2019). Yarjejeniyar raba madafun iko ba ta da kayan aikin tallafawa cibiyoyin gwamnati da kuma tabbatar da cewa tsarin rikon kwarya zai tsaya tsayin daka. Har ila yau, tun da aka sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyoyin a cikin yanayin yakin basasa, babu wanda ya hada da dukkanin bangarorin da ke rikici, wanda ya haifar da bayyanar masu lalata da kuma tsawaita yanayin yakin.
Duk da haka, a ranar 22 ga Fabrairu, 2020, an rantsar da Riek Machar da sauran shugabannin 'yan adawa a matsayin mataimakan shugaban kasa a sabuwar gwamnatin hadin kan Sudan ta Kudu. Wannan yarjejeniyar zaman lafiyar ta yi afuwa ga 'yan tawaye a yakin basasar Sudan ta Kudu, ciki har da mataimakin shugaban kasar Machar. Har ila yau, shugaba Kiir ya tabbatar da asali jihohi goma, wanda ya kasance muhimmin rangwame. Wani abin da ya jawo cece-kuce shi ne tsaron sirri na Machar a Juba; duk da haka, a wani bangare na yarjejeniyar da Kiir ya yi na kan iyaka da jihohi 10, Machar ya koma Juba ba tare da jami'an tsaronsa ba. Da waɗancan matsalolin guda biyu da ake ta cece-kuce a kai, bangarorin sun kulla yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya, duk da cewa sun bar wasu muhimman batutuwa—ciki har da yadda za a gaggauta hadewar da dakarun tsaron da ke biyayya ga Kiir ko kuma Machar suka zama sojojin kasa daya—wanda za a magance bayan sabuwar sabuwar shekara. gwamnati ta fara motsawa zuwa aiki (Kungiyar Rikicin Duniya, 2019; Kamfanin Watsa Labarai na Burtaniya, 2020; Kwamitin Tsaro na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, 2020).
Wallafe-wallafe
Masana ilimi da yawa sun haɓaka ka'idar dimokuradiyya ta haɗin kai, gami da Hans Daalder, Jorg Steiner, da Gerhard Lehmbruch. Manufar tsarin mulkin dimokuradiyya ita ce tsare-tsaren raba madafun iko na da sauye-sauye masu yawa. Magoya bayan shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko sun ta'allaka ne da hujjojinsu game da muhimman ka'idojin warware rikice-rikice ko hanyoyin samar da zaman lafiya a cikin al'ummomi rarrabuwar kawuna kan aikin ilimi na Arend Lijphart, wanda babban bincikensa kan "dimokiradiyya ta hadin gwiwa da dimokuradiyyar yarjejeniya" ya kafa ci gaba wajen fahimtar hanyoyin. na dimokuradiyya a cikin al'ummomin da suka rabu. Lijphart (2008) ya bayar da hujjar cewa dimokuradiyya a cikin al'ummomin da ba a raba su ba zai yiwu, ko da lokacin da 'yan kasa suka rabu, idan shugabanni suka kafa kawance. A cikin tsarin dimokuradiyya na haɗin gwiwa, masu ruwa da tsaki sun kafa haɗin gwiwa waɗanda ke wakiltar dukkanin manyan ƙungiyoyin zamantakewa na wannan al'umma kuma ana rarraba ofisoshi da albarkatu daidai gwargwado (Lijphart 1996 & 2008; O'Flynn & Russell, 2005; Spears, 2000).
Esman (2004) ya bayyana rabon madafun iko a matsayin “wani tsari na ɗabi’a, tsari, da cibiyoyi, wanda a cikinsa fasahar mulki ta zama batun sasantawa, daidaitawa, da kuma daidaita buri da korafe-korafen al’ummomin ƙabilunta” (shafi na 178). XNUMX). Don haka, dimokuradiyyar haɗin gwiwa wani nau'i ne na dimokuradiyya tare da keɓancewar tsarin raba madafun iko, ayyuka, da ƙa'idodi. Don manufar wannan bincike, kalmar "raba madafun iko" zai maye gurbin "dimokiradiyya ta consociation" kamar yadda rabon iko ya kasance a tsakiyar tsarin ka'idar consociational.
A cikin warware rikice-rikice da nazarin zaman lafiya, ana la'akari da raba madafun iko a matsayin warware rikici ko tsarin samar da zaman lafiya wanda zai iya magance rikice-rikice, rikice-rikice tsakanin al'ummomi, rikice-rikicen jam'iyyu, kuma mafi mahimmanci, rage inganta tsarin zaman lafiya da dimokuradiyya, haɗin kai. da gina yarjejeniya (Cheeseman, 2011; Aeby, 2018; Hartzell & Hoddie, 2019). A cikin shekarun da suka gabata, aiwatar da shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko ya kasance jigon sasanta rikicin tsakanin al'ummomi a Afirka. Misali, an tsara tsarin raba madafun iko a baya a 1994 a Afirka ta Kudu; 1999 a Saliyo; 1994, 2000, da 2004 a Burundi; 1993 a Ruwanda; 2008 a Kenya; da 2009 a Zimbabwe. A Sudan ta Kudu, tsarin raba madafun iko da dama shi ne jigon hanyoyin warware rikice-rikice na yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya ta 2005 (CPA), da yarjejeniyar 2015 kan warware rikicin Sudan ta Kudu (ARCSS), yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya na Satumba 2018 Yarjejeniyar warware rikicin Sudan ta Kudu (R-ARCSS) yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya. A ka’ida, manufar raba madafun iko ta kunshi cikakken tsari na tsarin siyasa ko kawancen da zai iya dinke rarrabuwar kawuna a cikin al’ummomin da yaki ya daidaita. Misali, a Kenya, shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko tsakanin Mwai Kibaki da Raila Odinga ya zama makami don magance tashe-tashen hankula na siyasa kuma an yi nasara, a wani bangare, saboda aiwatar da tsare-tsaren hukumomin da suka hada da kungiyoyin farar hula da kuma rage tsoma bakin siyasa daga wani babban jami'in. haɗin gwiwa (Cheeseman & Tendi, 2010; Kingsley, 2008). A Afirka ta Kudu, an yi amfani da rabon madafun iko a matsayin kafa hukumomin rikon kwarya don haɗa ƙungiyoyi daban-daban bayan kawo ƙarshen mulkin wariyar launin fata (Lijphart, 2004).
Masu adawa da tsarin raba madafun iko irin su Finkeldey (2011) sun yi iƙirarin cewa rabon iko yana da "babbar rata tsakanin ka'idar gama-gari da tsarin siyasa" (shafi na 12). Tull and Mehler (2005), a halin da ake ciki, yayi gargadi game da "ɓoye farashin ikon raba mulki," ɗaya daga cikinsu shine haɗa ƙungiyoyin tashe-tashen hankula a kan neman albarkatu da ikon siyasa. Bugu da ari, masu sukar ikon raba madafun iko sun nuna cewa "inda aka ba da iko ga masu fada aji na kabilanci, raba madafun iko na iya haifar da rarrabuwar kabilanci a cikin al'umma" (Aeby, 2018, shafi na 857).
Masu sukar dai sun kara da cewa hakan na kara karfafa kabilanci da ya barke da kuma samar da zaman lafiya da kwanciyar hankali na gajeren lokaci, don haka ya kasa ba da damar dunkulewar dimokradiyya. A halin da ake ciki a Sudan ta Kudu, an yi la'akari da raba madafun iko a matsayin samar da tarihi na warware rikici, amma wannan tsarin raba madafun iko sama da kasa bai samar da zaman lafiya mai dorewa ba. Bayan haka, matakin da yarjejeniyar raba madafun iko za ta iya samar da zaman lafiya da kwanciyar hankali ya dogara ne a wani bangare na bangarorin da ke rikici, gami da rawar da za a iya takawa na 'masu lalata'. Kamar yadda Stedman (1997) ya nuna, babban haɗari ga gina zaman lafiya a cikin yanayi bayan rikice-rikice ya fito ne daga "masu ɓarna": waɗancan shugabanni da jam'iyyun da ke da damar da za su yi amfani da tashin hankali don rushe hanyoyin zaman lafiya ta hanyar amfani da karfi. Sakamakon yawaitar gungun 'yan ta'adda da dama a duk fadin kasar Sudan ta Kudu, kungiyoyin masu dauke da makamai wadanda ba sa cikin yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya ta watan Agustan 2015 sun taimaka wajen kawo cikas ga tsarin raba madafun iko.
A bayyane yake cewa don samun nasarar shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko, ya kamata a fadada su zuwa ga mambobin sauran kungiyoyi baya ga wadanda suka sanya hannu na farko. A Sudan ta Kudu, babban abin da aka fi mayar da hankali kan adawar Shugaba Kiir da Machar ya mamaye korafe-korafen talakawan kasar, wanda ya haifar da fada tsakanin kungiyoyi masu dauke da makamai. Ainihin, darasi daga irin waɗannan abubuwan shine cewa dole ne a daidaita tsare-tsaren raba madafun iko ta hanyar gaskiya, amma hanyoyin da ba na al'ada ba don tabbatar da daidaiton siyasa tsakanin ƙungiyoyi idan suna son samun ci gaba. Dangane da Sudan ta Kudu, rarrabuwar kabilanci ce ke tsakiyar rikicin, kuma ita ce babbar matsalar tashe tashen hankula, kuma tana ci gaba da zaman dar-dar a siyasar Sudan ta Kudu. Siyasar kabilanci da ta ginu kan gasa ta tarihi da alakar da ke tsakaninta da juna ta tsara yadda bangarorin da ke fada da juna a Sudan ta Kudu suka kasance.
Roeder da Rothchild (2005) sun yi iƙirarin cewa shirye-shiryen raba iko na iya samun sakamako masu fa'ida a lokacin farkon lokacin sauye-sauye daga yaƙi zuwa zaman lafiya, amma ƙarin tasirin matsala a cikin lokacin ƙarfafawa. Tsarin raba madafun iko da ya gabata a Sudan ta Kudu, alal misali, ya mayar da hankali ne kan tsarin tabbatar da madafun iko, amma bai mai da hankali sosai ga ‘yan wasa da dama a Sudan ta Kudu ba. A matakin fahimta, masana da masu tsara manufofi sun yi nuni da cewa, rashin tattaunawa tsakanin bincike da ajandar nazari ne ke haifar da makafi a cikin wallafe-wallafen, wanda ya yi watsi da masu yin tasiri da abubuwan da suka dace.
Yayin da wallafe-wallafe kan rabon iko ya haifar da mabambanta ra'ayoyi kan ingancinsa, an yi nazarin magana kan ra'ayi ta hanyar ruwan tabarau na intra-elite, kuma akwai gibi da yawa tsakanin ka'ida da aiki. A cikin ƙasashen da aka ambata a baya inda aka kafa gwamnatocin raba madafun iko, an mai da hankali sosai kan ɗan gajeren lokaci maimakon kwanciyar hankali na dogon lokaci. Ana iya cewa, game da Sudan ta Kudu, shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko a baya sun gaza, saboda kawai sun tsara mafita a matakin masu fada aji, ba tare da yin la’akari da yin sulhu a tsakanin jama’a ba. Wani muhimmin abin lura shi ne, yayin da shirye-shiryen raba madafun iko suka shafi samar da zaman lafiya, sasanta rigingimu da hana sake afkuwar yaki, amma ya yi watsi da manufar gina kasa.
Abubuwan da za su kai ga Nasara Gwamnatin Hadin Kai
Duk wani tsari na raba madafun iko, a ma’ana, yana bukatar hada dukkan manyan sassan al’umma tare da ba su rabon mulki. Don haka, duk wani shiri na raba madafun iko da zai gudana a Sudan ta Kudu, dole ne ta sake gina amana a tsakanin duk masu ruwa da tsaki a rikicin, tun daga kwance damara, korar da jama’a, da sake hadewa (DDR) na bangarori daban-daban zuwa gagartattun jami’an tsaro, da kuma tabbatar da adalci da bin doka da oda. , farfado da ƙungiyoyin jama'a, da rarraba albarkatun ƙasa daidai wa daida tsakanin dukkan ƙungiyoyi. Gina amana yana da mahimmanci a duk wani shiri na samar da zaman lafiya. Ba tare da dangataka mai karfi ta aminci tsakanin Kiir da Machar musamman ba, amma kuma, a tsakanin kungiyoyin da suka balle, tsarin raba madafun iko zai gaza, kuma za a iya tunanin zai iya haifar da karin rashin tsaro, kamar yadda ya faru a yarjejeniyar raba madafun iko a watan Agustan 2015. Yarjejeniyar ta wargaje ne saboda an tsige mataimakin shugaban kasar Machar bayan sanarwar da shugaba Kiir ya yi cewa Machar ya yi yunkurin juyin mulki. Wannan ya hada kabilar Dinka da ke da alaka da Kiir da kuma na kabilar Nuer da ke goyon bayan Machar da juna (Roach, 2016; Sperber, 2016). Wani abin da zai iya kaiwa ga nasarar tsarin raba madafun iko shi ne samar da amana tsakanin sabbin mambobin majalisar. Domin shirin raba madafun iko ya yi aiki yadda ya kamata, shugaba Kiir da mataimakinsa Machar na bukatar samar da yanayin amincewa ga bangarorin biyu a lokacin rikon kwarya. Zaman lafiya mai dadewa ya dogara ne da niyya da ayyukan dukkan bangarorin da ke cikin yarjejeniyar raba madafun iko, kuma babban kalubalen shi ne ficewa daga kyawawan kalmomi zuwa ayyuka masu inganci.
Har ila yau, zaman lafiya da tsaro sun dogara ne kan kwance damarar kungiyoyin 'yan tawayen da ke cikin kasar. Don haka, ya kamata a aiwatar da sauye-sauye a fannin tsaro a matsayin kayan aikin samar da zaman lafiya don taimakawa tare da hadewar kungiyoyin masu dauke da makamai. Sake fasalin tsaro dole ne ya jaddada sake tsara tsoffin mayakan zuwa rundunar soja ta kasa, 'yan sanda, da sauran jami'an tsaro. Ana buƙatar matakan tabbatar da gaskiya da za su magance ‘yan tawaye da kuma amfani da su wajen haifar da sabbin rigingimu ta yadda tsaffin mayaka, waɗanda aka haɗa da su, su daina kawo cikas ga zaman lafiya da kwanciyar hankali a ƙasar. Idan an yi shi yadda ya kamata, irin wannan kwance damara, ruguzawa, da sake haɗawa (DDR) zai ƙarfafa zaman lafiya ta hanyar ƙarfafa amincewar juna tsakanin tsoffin abokan gāba da ƙarfafa ƙarin kwance damara tare da yawancin sauye-sauyen mai fafutuka zuwa rayuwar farar hula. Don haka ya kamata a sake fasalin fannin tsaro ya hada da mayar da jami'an tsaron Sudan ta Kudu siyasa. Nasarar shirin kwance damara, rugujewa, da sake hadewa (DDR) shima zai share fagen samun kwanciyar hankali da ci gaba a gaba. Hikimar al'ada ta ɗauka cewa haɗa tsoffin 'yan tawaye ko mayaƙa cikin sabon ƙarfi za a iya amfani da su don gina haɗe-haɗe na ƙasa (Lamb & Stainer, 2018). Ya kamata gwamnatin hadin kan kasa tare da hadin gwiwar Majalisar Dinkin Duniya (UN), kungiyar Tarayyar Afirka (AU), kungiyar raya kasashe masu ci gaba (IGAD), da sauran hukumomi, su dauki nauyin kwance damara tare da mayar da tsoffin mayakan cikin rayuwar farar hula yayin da suke rayuwa. da nufin samar da tsaro ta hanyar al'umma da kuma hanyar sama zuwa kasa.
Wasu bincike sun nuna cewa dole ne a gyara tsarin shari'a daidai gwargwado don tabbatar da bin doka da oda, da sake tabbatar da amana ga cibiyoyin gwamnati, da kuma karfafa dimokuradiyya. An yi zargin cewa yin amfani da gyare-gyaren adalci na rikon kwarya a cikin al'ummomin bayan rikice-rikice, musamman na gaskiya da kwamitocin sulhu (TRC), na iya kawo cikas ga yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya. Duk da yake wannan yana iya zama lamarin, ga waɗanda abin ya shafa, shirye-shiryen adalci na wucin gadi bayan rikici na iya gano gaskiyar game da rashin adalcin da aka yi a baya, bincika tushen su, gurfanar da masu laifi, sake fasalin cibiyoyi, da tallafawa sulhu (Van Zyl, 2005). A bisa ka'ida, gaskiya da sulhu za su taimaka wajen sake farfado da amana a Sudan ta Kudu da kuma kaucewa sake barkewar rikici. Ƙirƙirar kotun tsarin mulki ta wucin gadi, gyara shari'a, da kuma an na musamman Kwamitin Gyaran Shari'a (JRC) don bayar da rahoto da ba da shawarwari a lokacin rikon kwarya, kamar yadda aka ayyana a cikin yarjejeniyar da aka farfado da yarjejeniyar warware rikici a Sudan ta Kudu (R-ARCSS), zai ba da sarari don warkar da rarrabuwar kawuna na zamantakewa da kuma rauni. . Idan aka yi la’akari da alhaki na wasu bangarorin da ke rikici, aiwatar da wadannan tsare-tsare zai zama matsala. Ƙaƙƙarfan Hukumar Gaskiya da Sasantawa (TRC) na iya ba da gudummawa sosai ga sulhu da kwanciyar hankali, amma dole ne ta fahimci tabbatar da adalci a matsayin tsari wanda zai ɗauki shekaru da yawa ko tsararraki. Yana da matukar muhimmanci a kafa da kuma kiyaye doka da aiwatar da dokoki da tsare-tsare wadanda suka tauye ikon kowane bangare da kuma dorasu alhakin ayyukansu. Wannan zai iya taimakawa wajen sassauta tashin hankali, haifar da kwanciyar hankali, da rage yiwuwar ƙarin rikici. Amma duk da haka, idan aka samar da irin wannan hukumar, dole ne a yi taka-tsantsan don guje wa ramuwar gayya.
Tunda yunƙurin samar da zaman lafiya ya ƙunshi nau'ikan ƴan wasan kwaikwayo da yawa kuma suna kaiwa ga kowane fanni na tsarin jaha, suna buƙatar ƙoƙari na gama-gari bayan aiwatar da su cikin nasara. Dole ne gwamnatin rikon kwarya ta hada da kungiyoyi da dama daga mataki na kasa da na masu fada aji cikin kokarinta na sake ginawa da kuma samar da zaman lafiya a Sudan ta Kudu. Haɗin kai, galibi na ƙungiyoyin jama'a, yana da mahimmanci don haɓaka hanyoyin samar da zaman lafiya na ƙasa. Ƙungiyoyin jama'a masu ƙwazo da ƙwazo-da suka haɗa da shugabannin addini, shugabannin mata, shugabannin matasa, shugabannin kasuwanci, masana ilimi, da cibiyoyin shari'a-na iya taka muhimmiyar rawa a ayyukan samar da zaman lafiya yayin da suke haɓaka bullar ƙungiyoyin farar hula da tsarin siyasar dimokraɗiyya (Quinn, 2009). Don dakatar da ci gaba da tashe-tashen hankula, dole ne kokarin wadannan kungiyoyi daban-daban su magance yanayin aiki da tunanin halin da ake ciki a halin yanzu, kuma dole ne bangarorin biyu su aiwatar da manufar da ke magance matsalolin hada kai a lokacin shirin samar da zaman lafiya ta hanyar tabbatar da cewa zaben wakilai ya kasance. m.
A karshe, daya daga cikin abubuwan da ke haddasa rigingimun da ba a gama ba a Sudan ta Kudu, shi ne fafatawa da aka dade ana yi tsakanin 'yan kabilar Dinka da Nuer na neman madafun iko a siyasance da kuma albarkatun man fetur da yankin ke da shi. Korafe-korafe game da rashin daidaito, wariya, cin hanci da rashawa, son zuciya, da siyasar kabilanci na daga cikin abubuwa da dama da ke nuna rikice-rikicen da ake ciki a yanzu. Cin hanci da rashawa da gasa na siyasa suna da alaƙa da juna, kuma shafukan yanar gizo na cin zarafi na kleptocratic suna sauƙaƙe cin gajiyar dukiyar jama'a don amfanin kai. Kudaden da ake samu daga hako mai dole ne a yi niyya, a maimakon haka, a samar da ci gaban tattalin arziki mai dorewa, kamar saka hannun jari a harkokin zamantakewa, jama'a, da jarin hukumomi. Ana iya cimma hakan ta hanyar samar da ingantacciyar hanyar sa ido da ke kula da cin hanci da rashawa, tara kudaden shiga, tsara kasafin kudi, rabon kudaden shiga, da kashe kudade. Bugu da kari, masu ba da taimako ba dole ba ne kawai su taimaka wa gwamnatin hadin kan kasa don sake gina tattalin arzikin kasar da kayayyakin more rayuwa, har ma su kafa ma'auni don kauce wa cin hanci da rashawa. Don haka rabon arzikin kai tsaye kamar yadda wasu kungiyoyin 'yan tawaye suka bukata, ba zai taimakawa Sudan ta Kudu ba wajen tunkarar talaucin da take fama da shi. Gina zaman lafiya na dogon lokaci a Sudan ta Kudu, a maimakon haka, dole ne a magance matsalolin da suka dace, kamar daidaiton wakilci a dukkan bangarorin siyasa, zamantakewa da tattalin arziki. Yayin da masu shiga tsakani na waje da masu ba da taimako za su iya sauƙaƙe da tallafawa gina zaman lafiya, a ƙarshe dole ne dakarun cikin gida su yi gyare-gyaren demokradiyya.
Amsoshin tambayoyin bincike sun ta'allaka ne kan yadda gwamnati mai raba madafun iko ke magance korafe-korafen cikin gida, sake gina amana tsakanin bangarorin da ke rikici, samar da ingantaccen shirin kwance damara, rugujewa, da sake hadewa (DDR), ba da adalci, rike masu laifi, da karfafawa ƙwaƙƙwarar ƙungiyoyin jama'a waɗanda ke kula da gwamnati mai raba madafun iko, da kuma tabbatar da rarraba albarkatun ƙasa daidai gwargwado tsakanin dukkan ƙungiyoyi. Domin kaucewa sake afkuwar lamarin, dole ne a kawar da sabuwar gwamnatin hadin kan kasa a siyasance, a yi gyara a fannin tsaro da kuma magance rarrabuwar kawuna tsakanin Kiir da Machar. Dukkan wadannan matakai na da matukar muhimmanci ga nasarar raba madafun iko da samar da zaman lafiya a Sudan ta Kudu. Duk da haka, nasarar sabuwar gwamnatin hadin kan kasa ta dogara ne kan iradar siyasa, jajircewa ta siyasa, da hadin kan dukkan bangarorin da ke cikin rikici.
Kammalawa
Ya zuwa yanzu, wannan bincike ya nuna cewa masu haddasa rikicin Sudan ta Kudu suna da sarkakiya da yawa. Karkashin rikicin tsakanin Kiir da Machar kuma wasu batutuwa ne masu tushe, kamar rashin shugabanci, gwagwarmayar mulki, cin hanci da rashawa, son zuciya, da kuma rarrabuwar kabilanci. Dole ne sabuwar gwamnatin hadin kan kasa ta magance yadda ya kamata a kan yadda rikicin kabilanci ke faruwa tsakanin Kiir da Machar. Ta hanyar yin amfani da rarrabuwar kabilanci da ke akwai da kuma amfani da yanayin tsoro, bangarorin biyu sun tattara magoya bayansu yadda ya kamata a duk fadin Sudan ta Kudu. Aikin da ke gabansa shi ne, gwamnatin wucin gadin rikon kwarya ta tsara tsarin da zai canza salo da tsare-tsare na zaman tattaunawa na kasa baki daya, da magance rarrabuwar kawuna, da shafar sauye-sauye a fannin tsaro, da yaki da cin hanci da rashawa, da samar da adalci na rikon kwarya, da ba da taimako wajen sake tsugunar da 'yan gudun hijirar. mutanen da suka rasa matsugunansu. Dole ne gwamnatin hadin kan kasar ta aiwatar da manufofi na dogon lokaci da na gajeren lokaci, wadanda za su magance wadannan abubuwa masu kawo cikas, wadanda galibi ake amfani da su don ci gaban siyasa da karfafawa daga bangarorin biyu.
Gwamnatin Sudan ta Kudu da kawayenta na ci gaba sun ba da muhimmanci sosai kan gina kasa ba su mai da hankali sosai kan samar da zaman lafiya. Tsarin raba madafun iko kadai ba zai iya kawo zaman lafiya da tsaro mai dorewa ba. Zaman lafiya da kwanciyar hankali na iya buƙatar ƙarin matakin kawar da siyasa daga kabilanci. Abin da zai taimaka wajen tabbatar da zaman lafiya a Sudan ta Kudu shi ne tinkarar rikice-rikicen cikin gida da ba da damar bayyana korafe-korafe iri-iri da kungiyoyi da daidaikun mutane ke rike da su. A tarihi, masu fada aji sun tabbatar da cewa zaman lafiya ba shi ne abin da suke fafutuka ba, don haka akwai bukatar a mai da hankali ga mutanen da ke son zaman lafiya da adalci a Sudan ta Kudu. Tsarin zaman lafiya ne kawai wanda ya yi la'akari da ƙungiyoyi daban-daban, abubuwan da suka faru a rayuwa, da korafe-korafensu guda ɗaya ne kawai zai iya samar da zaman lafiya da Sudan ta Kudu ke fata. A karshe, domin samun cikakken tsarin raba madafun iko a Sudan ta Kudu, dole ne masu shiga tsakani su mai da hankali sosai kan tushe da korafe-korafen yakin basasa. Idan ba a magance wadannan batutuwan yadda ya kamata ba, to da alama sabuwar gwamnatin hadin kan kasa za ta gaza, kuma Sudan ta Kudu za ta ci gaba da zama kasar da ke yaki da kanta.
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